Posts in category: Advisory

Processing Payroll in 8 Easy Steps

Although outsourcing payroll is an effective approach, completing payroll in-house can save your business time and money. You may think that completing payroll is a daunting task, but following tips such as determining overtime pay, calculating gross pay, and determining deductions before you start the payroll process can keep you in check. Additionally, keeping records after each pay period is also a vital tip. Check out this link to take a short quiz and to read more information!

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Income Tax Brackets for 2020 and 2021

This article discusses the importance of being educated on the latest income tax brackets and trends to best optimize your hard-earned savings. Each year the IRS adjusts the tax brackets and knowing exactly which one you and your business fall into and can be very beneficial. Be sure to check out this link to compare last year to the expected upcoming 2021 federal income tax bracket and rates.

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Finding, Retaining, and Rewarding the Right Staff and Clients

This article discusses some of the best practices that you can incorporate into your startup or general business to keep adequate clients and customers surrounding your business. Whether it is superior customer service, being open and honest, and/or rewarding great work, these tips can set you apart from the competition. Be sure to check out this link for more details!

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How Will Monetary Policy Impact Markets Going Forward?

With gold hitting $2,000 an ounce in recent days, coupled with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy creating a lot of liquidity, how will markets perform for the rest of 2020 and beyond?

Based on a reading of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its July 28 to July 29 meeting, the Fed remarked that the ongoing pandemic would continue to put a strain on the economy, slowing expansion and causing additional damage to the country’s monetary framework.

The Fed highlighted the nation’s GDP drop by 32.9 percent in the second quarter. While Q3 growth is expected to be positive, that was not quantified. Additionally, the Federal government’s debt has grown by $3 trillion since the onset of COVID-19, reaching $26.6 trillion. The release of these minutes sent stock prices downward and helped the U.S. dollar gain.

Forward guidance or communication to the general public and business owners of the Fed's goals for inflation and unemployment target figures could be upgraded, but no time frame was given. More details on how the target range for the federal funds rate's path would be appropriate at some point, per the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) minutes. How the target range of the federal funds rate evolves is outcome-based or based upon meeting certain economic goals before rates see further movement. For now, The Fed's mandate is to ensure full employment and price stability.

The FOMC is expected to keep the current overnight borrowing rate between 0 percent and 0.25 percent until the U.S. economy has emerged from its current situation and on course to achieve the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.

The July meeting kept short-term interest rates at near-zero because the economy is still not at its pre-pandemic economic activity levels. Given that COVID-19 has already impacted the jobs picture, the value of the U.S. dollar, and how well the economy is functioning already in the near term, the FOMC see the pandemic continuing to impact economic growth in the medium term.

The Fed remarked that the U.S. Congress needs to pass another economic stimulus plan, especially when it comes to renewing unemployment insurance that recently expired. The FOMC meeting also noted that the Fed is not expected to purchase bonds to control yields on government bonds. However, it did speak to how it has played a role in buying bonds on the open market to support liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The meeting also determined that bond purchases by the Fed grew by more than $2.5 trillion, increasing to $7 trillion – up from $4.4 trillion over the course of the coronavirus pandemic. While skepticism by the Fed’s FOMC members regarding the use of purchasing bonds to manipulate the government bond yield curve wasn’t given much consideration, it’s still noteworthy to explain this versus what many refer to as quantitative easing or QE.

If the Fed’s efforts to bring down short-term interest rates, the rate that banks earn on overnight deposits, to zero with no positive economic effects, another tool the Fed has is Yield Curve Control (YCC). Whatever longer-term rate the Fed has in mind, YCC would involve an ongoing campaign of buying long-term bonds to maintain rates below its target rate by increasing the bond’s price and lowering the bond’s longer-term rates.

This is in contrast to QE, where the Fed purchases a fixed amount of bonds from the open market. It’s done by central banks to increase the money supply in hopes of spurring spending and investing by Main Street. It’s an important tool that central banks rely on when rates are at or near zero. This helps banks with their reserve requirements, giving them more liquidity to provide more loans to consumers and commercial borrowers.

Quantitative Easing Considerations

As central banks increase the money supply, it can create inflation. If it does create inflation, but there's no measurable economic growth, this can lead to stagflation.

It is noteworthy that QE and the resulting lending attempt to stimulate the economy is effective only if individuals and commercial operations take loans and use them to spend and invest in the economy.

QE also can devalue the currency. It can help domestic manufacturers export goods (because the currency is cheaper), and anything that's imported is more expensive. Consumers are hit with higher prices for imported goods, along with domestic producers using higher-priced imported raw materials for their final products.

With the economy still facing the headwinds of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed has played a major role in stabilizing the economy. While the increase of liquidity has certainly provided a lifeline for the markets, the price of gold can be seen as a hedge against this liquidity – with inflation as one potential outcome. For the rest of 2020, The Fed will be ready and able to assist the markets but will leave lingering questions about the value of U.S. and other global currencies.

Long-Term Financial Impact of COVID-19

As bad as the economy is right now due to the COVID outbreak in the United States, many economists are predicting that the long-term outlook is much bleaker. Congress and the Federal Reserve’s efforts at stimulus and interest rate management have done much to keep the economy and stock market afloat; however, small businesses – the backbone of America’s employment growth – are closing every day. As consumer spending reduces further, the impact will likely affect Wall Street. Consequently, share prices may soon begin correcting to reflect the future more so than the present. 

It should come as no surprise, then, that 88 percent of respondents admit they are worried about their finances, according to a recent survey conducted by the National Endowment for Financial Education. 

This economic decline has presented an interesting mix of demographics who have been or will be affected the most over the long term. For instance, many low-income workers have remained employed throughout the pandemic because their jobs are considered “essential services.” This includes check-out clerks at grocery stores, laborers who work outdoor jobs, nurses, orderlies, and nursing home attendants. 

By contrast, many white-collar business owners – such as physicians and dentists– closed shop for a few months and/or have reduced the number of patients they see. Alas, 79 percent of those surveyed with a household income of more than $100,000 a year said they were at least somewhat concerned about their financial situation. 

Millennials are the generation most likely to change the way they manage their finances in the future. Although many have remained employed in white-collar jobs – primarily due to their technology-enhanced skills and knowledge – they have reason to be concerned. After all, this generation has already lived through the market downturn following 9/11, the Great Recession, and now a historic economic decline caused by the coronavirus. After finally gaining a foothold in their careers, this recent downturn obliterated the last five years' worth of economic growth. Going forward, finance experts predict that these young adults will be more focused on stock-piling savings, buying modest homes when the real estate market corrects, and generally working on a long-term plan for financial stability. 

While those strategies are mostly good, it’s a shame this generation had to learn the hard way – all while encumbered with historically unprecedented student loan debt. However, as these lessons are passed down through generations – much the way the Great Depression had a lasting impact on the Silent Generation – U.S. populations may see higher savings rates at the expense of lower GDP growth. 

For households recovering from financial stress or looking to create a plan for stronger financial resiliency no matter what the future holds, consider the following strategies: 

• First priority: Save from three to six months' worth of liquid, emergency funds should you encounter a large expense, such as an auto repair or a temporary loss of income.
• Learn how to budget effectively, which includes examining if you overpay for basic household needs or do not know how much of your income is spent superfluously every month.
• Take stock of the full scope of your financial resources, including:¬†
  • Savings accounts
  • Investment accounts
  • Retirement accounts
  • Health savings accounts
  • College savings accounts
  • Whole life insurance
  • Real property
  • Structured settlements
  • Vehicles (auto, boat, motorcycle, recreational)
  • Art, jewelry, wine, or other high-value collectibles
  • Expensive furnishings and household items¬†
• Develop a Plan B to help supplement any income loss right now, a Plan C to help bolster your savings rate once you‚Äôre back to full income, and a Plan D strategy for income replacement in case you‚Äôre ever in a situation like this again.¬†

Financial setbacks will come and go; it’s the lessons we learn from them that should have the most staying power.

 

Examining the Fed's New Targeted Inflation Policy

Looking back to 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – a collaboration of the 12 regional Fed banks and the Federal Reserve Governors in Washington – came together and published a Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. This officially rang in the FOMC's public commitment to maintain inflation at 2 percent. It is based on a yearly change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and is in accordance with The Federal Reserve's “mandate for maximum employment and price stability.”

Guided by three events in the economy, according to the Brookings Institution, the FOMC was prompted to take a second look at 2012's existing framework. The first factor, an approximation of the “neutral level” of interest rates, or interest rate levels correlated “with full employment” and inflation targets, kept dropping globally. The “lower neutral rate” is achieved when short-term interest rates, which are controlled by The Fed, stay at levels closer to zero versus higher levels. When this occurs, The Fed has little room to further lower interest rates, and therefore stimulate the economy. The next factor involves inflation rates and anticipation for future inflation rates to stay below The Fed's 2 percent target. The last factor was unemployment falling to a five-decade low.

The FOMC's Aug. 27 update reveals that the inflation rate has been lower than the 2 percent inflation target in recent years, despite housing, food, and energy increasing in price for consumers.

When there's too little inflation, as The Fed explains, it can negatively impact the economy. If inflation remains below The Fed's “longer-run inflation goal,” it can propel a self-fulfilling prophecy of further declining inflation levels.

As originally explained in 2012 and updated in August, the FOMC's purpose is to “promote maximum employment,” keep prices stable, and “moderate long-term interest rates.” It also guides individuals and business owners with more information to make decisions, promote greater “economic and financial certainty” and increase “transparency and accountability.”

The Fed, based on their FAQ section, has said that when inflation runs below 2 percent for an extended period of time, monetary policy will adjust to run above 2 percent for a period of time. Therefore, the FOMC is hoping to ensure that “longer-run inflation” will average at 2 percent.

The FOMC's monetary policy is a big determinate in keeping the economy stable when the economy and financial systems are put out of balance due to factors such as inflation, long-term interest rates, and employment. The FOMC accomplishes its monetary policy via the “target range for the federal funds rate.”

Looking at the “level of the federal funds rate consistent with maximum employment and price stability over the longer run,” this rate has dropped compared to past average rates. With this in mind, the federal funds rate is generally expected to remain on the lower end of the rate spectrum more so now, versus years back. With interest rates closer to the bottom end, the FOMC believes that inflation and employment perils are more likely to stay depressed.

Based on comments from The Fed in August, the FOMC clarifies its Congressional Mandate regarding price stability and maximum employment, along with determinations on its short-term interest rate and other monetary policy considerations.

Following up on its Congressional mandate for The Fed to ensure maximum employment and price stability, the first thing to focus on is price stability or inflation.

Before, The Fed had a price stability target of 2 percent inflation, based upon the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. The FOMC called this price stability “symmetric,” meaning that inflation above or below the target is equally concerning.

However, its new stance will now focus on attaining “inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time” after an ongoing time period of tame inflation. Based on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, this is a flexible form of average inflation targeting.

This end goal of average inflation targeting suggests that when inflation is below the 2 percent target over an extended period of time, the FOMC will adjust its policy to encourage inflation above the 2 percent target to attain balance. However, The Fed didn't give details regarding the time frame for its new averaged 2 percent inflation target, nor did it specify what actions it will implement to achieve it.

The Fed also made noteworthy changes to its “maximum employment” mandate. When it comes to this measurement, it originally compared the projections of “the long-run rate of unemployment” to the unemployment rate. According to the Brookings Institution, this also can be referred to as “the natural rate of unemployment or the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).”

Since live estimates of the NAIRU can be unreliable, it's no longer being considered. While the Summary of Economic Projections will still include estimates of unemployment statistics by FOMC members, it will unofficially take the place of the NAIRU readings. However, these FOMC members' long-run estimates of unemployment will have less impact on monetary policy decisions.

How Do Interest Rates Looking Going Forward?

With these two changes to The Fed's Congressional mandates, many expect monetary policy to be quite loose over the coming years, according to the Brookings Institution. By permitting hotter than normal inflation and low rates of unemployment, there's a remote chance The Fed will increase interest rates prior to inflation running north of 2 percent for a measurable time period. 

Main Street Loans Opening Up for Smaller Businesses

This article discusses the most recent announcement from the Federal Reserve Board. This is significant for small businesses because the minimum loan amount went from $250,000 to $100,000 on three Main Street loan facilities. Additionally, they published a frequently asked clarification document that answers questions concerning the paycheck protection program. Be sure to check out this link for more information!

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Why Hiring a Tax Accountant is Good for Small Business

This article discusses how, although hiring a CPA for your small business comes with a cost, the pros may outweigh the cons in this situation. For example, hiring a CPA will allow you to save precious time and can be used as a trusted source for support. Additionally, your accountant can help you with all finance-related work as well as offer advice on a daily basis. Be sure to check out this article for more details!

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Fighting Financial Fraud

This article discusses how the coronavirus pandemic, and in particular, telecommuting, has raised a new set of problems for managers in terms of company fraud. Working from home has its benefits, but as a company owner or manager, it also has a lot of risks. Tools to fight fraud have been increasing through the years, but now more than ever, your company can benefit from understanding these tools and utilizing them in your business. Check out this article for more details.

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Small Business Best Practices for the Remainder of 2020

This article discusses some of the best business practices that your business can partake in order to ensure or maintain results during this hard time. From knowing the weaknesses of your products to having a playbook and the right tools, these tips can be very useful as we continue on in 2020. Be sure to check out this article to view the full list!

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