Monthly Archives: February 2022

Digital Innovations to Watch in 2022

This article discusses how the coronavirus pandemic accelerated many trends that we see today in the workplace. Specifically for start-ups, it is important to take advantage of these trends to stay competitive. For example, trends such as embracing the fact that hybrid and remote work are here to stay, demand for personalization, privacy, and artificial intelligence growth are all expected to have a significant impact in 2022. No matter the sector that you operate in, be sure to check out this link for the full list and more details on what to expect this coming year!

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2022 U.S. Tax Legislation Forecast

No one knows for sure what 2022 will bring in the form of tax legislation, but there is certain to be some action. Top tax analysts think there are several topics that are likely to come up in 2022. Most predict that a lot of potential changes that were discussed in 2021 but never gained much traction will be revisited.

Rolling Back Corporate Tax Rates

Back in 2017, President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts (TCJA) reduced corporate tax rates. While a bid to raise them again failed in 2021, many believe there is a good chance that Democrats will try again in 2022. Most believe a 2022 proposal would try to raise the current 21 percent corporate tax bracket up to between 25 percent and 28 percent, but opinions vary. While most analysts see a push to raise rates, no one predicts a push to go back to pre-2017 rates, which were as high as 35 percent. Republican opposition to any such measure is expected to be strong.

The Billionaire Tax

New spending proposals in 2021 saw the backing of a billionaire tax as a method to help finance them. While no such tax made its way into law during 2021, many analysts believe that a billionaire tax is likely to resurface once again in 2022.

The name is a bit of a misnomer, as the most recent proposals applied to more than just billionaires; they were set to impact taxpayers with more than $1 billion in assets as well as those with over $100 million of income for three years in a row. Under these thresholds, the tax would only impact approximately 700 to 800 people in the United States.

Proposals from 2021 included a controversial provision that is a major deviation from current tax law: taxing unrealized gains. Currently, tradable assets such as stocks are taxed only on realized gains once the asset is sold, with a few exceptions, such as for professional traders who can elect to mark-to-market. Iterations of the billionaire tax proposed to change this and require such assets to be valued annually and taxed according to the unrealized portion as well. The rationale is that the ultra-wealthy can take loans against their assets and avoid ever selling or realizing the gains – and therefore avoid taxes as well.

Finally, it’s important to note that this particular form of billionaire tax is not the same as a wealth tax. This tax focuses on unrealized gains only and not the taxpayer’s total wealth.

A True Wealth Tax

Another tax law that made its way into the national spotlight during 2021 and is likely to get another try in 2022 is some form of a wealth tax.

Typically, a wealth tax is a flat tax percentage placed on a taxpayer's total net worth annually; say one percent, for example. Unlike essentially all forms of taxation in the United States, a wealth tax would see someone owing money year after year even if they never made any more money.

One of the biggest non-political problems with a wealth tax is logistics. Taxing net worth means that every asset a taxpayer owns needs to be valued annually, including real estate, cash, investments, business ownership, and other assets. This creates a huge administrative burden and leaves a lot of room for interpretation between valuation professionals as well.

No analyst foresees any wealth tax proposals applying broadly. Instead, most see it being targeted at the ultra-wealthy – those with a net worth over $50 million. This makes it politically palatable as the vast majority of taxpayers are exempt; however, many oppose any such tax either due to ideological reasons or because they feel it represents a slippery slope to eventually capture more and more taxpayers with lower net worth thresholds.

Tougher Regulations on Cryptocurrency

One of the most unclear areas for potential 2022 tax law proposals involves cryptocurrencies. The reality is that most of Congress simply doesn't understand the market and the IRS itself is mired in technical rules on how to treat various sectors of the emerging financial arena.

While some analysts predict there will be proposals to differentiate the tax treatment from more traditional assets, others believe the moves will be largely regulatory and focus on compliance and minimizing tax avoidance within the asset class.

Conclusion
Many of the above tax provisions are highly partisan. As a result, congressional gridlock will likely ensue, and little if anything will get passed through legislative channels. This leaves many analysts predicting that tax changes, to the extent possible under our system, may see more executive actions than usual. Regardless, with the current economic uncertainty, high inflation, and geopolitical instability, the topics above may or may not come up this year. What is certain, however, is that taxes won't be going away or getting any simpler. 

How are Commodity Prices Expected to Impact Earnings in 2022?

According to the World Bank, there's a mixed picture for commodities in 2022. Globally, prices for crude oil are expected to hit $74 per barrel during 2022, compared to 2021's $70 price tag. This is attributed to greater economic activity as the world continues its reopening. Metal commodities, on the other hand, are projected to drop in 2022 by 5 percent. Similarly, the “softs,” or farming-based commodities, are expected to find an equilibrium or fall nominally in 2022. With much uncertainty related to the pricing of commodities and their impact on 2022’s markets, how have commodity prices impacted company profits and past market cycles?

Earnings, Profits and Measuring Margins

When it comes to evaluating margins, we examine how profitable sales have been after factoring in external and internal costs. Be it at the net margin level, the gross margin level, or the operating margin level, businesses get a wide analysis of their profitability.

There are many reasons companies could see margin pressure and, therefore, reduced profitability. Competition, internal production challenges (e.g., rising overhead caused by increases in wages, raw materials, electricity, etc.), so-called “black swan” events such as pandemics, and other geopolitical events impacting commodities and tariffs are among the many reasons for margin pressure.

The World Bank, focusing on the outlook for oil, sees potential for domestic shale production to pick up less quickly and the favoring of crude oil versus natural gas. Higher energy prices could slow growth, and the uncertainty of the pandemic could affect energy demand. However, based on reduced investments in crude oil, recovery has fallen since 2014 and again in 2020. Many initially think of the price they pay at the pump. However, indirect costs of increasing crude oil can impact shippers, retailers, airlines, fertilizer manufacturers and farmers, the transportation industry – and the stock prices of those publicly traded companies.

As for other commodities, there are considerations for direct and indirect industry performance. For example, the price of lumber can immediately impact how much homebuilders charge for a new home; however, it also impacts the real estate market, additions, and other industries that use large quantities of wood.

Analyzing Stock Market Sector Performance

When it comes to looking at commodity prices, consumer behavior, and market cycles for the past six decades (starting in 1962), consumer staples have been a steady winner. Looking 10 years back from mid-April 2021, based on Indices, consumer sector stocks grew by 8.2 percent, versus the S&P 500’s annualized returns of 11.86 percent over the same timeframe.

The consumer staples sector is one industry where high commodity prices are likely to impact earnings less than consumer discretionary. With consumer staples, a necessity that is independent of the health of the economy, the level of demand is stronger than in other sectors. While consumer staples aren't immune from competition, they are often easier for companies to push price increases through.

In 2022, many Central Banks globally are expected to push a more hawkish monetary policy. Only time will tell whether or not global monetary actions will get a handle on commodity prices and influence markets accordingly.  

Create a Healthcare Plan for Retirement

If you pay $250 a month for cable and premium channels, that’s $3,000 a year. Over a 30-year period, the total cost would be $90,000. 

We don’t tend to think about how much we pay in regular expenses over the long term. However, that’s how various industry analysts report the cost of healthcare during retirement. Recent estimates for a retiring 65-year-old couple fall between $300,000 and $400,000 to cover healthcare expenses in retirement. At first glance, that’s an intimidating number and implies that pre-retirees need to have this much saved by the time they retire. 

Fortunately, when you break down the numbers, that’s not the case. First of all, that estimate includes premiums for Medicare with prescription drug coverage, which is typically deducted from Social Security benefits before they ever hit your bank account. According to T. Rowe Price, Medicare premiums account for 76 percent to 82 percent of most retirees’ healthcare expenses, so a large portion of these costs are paid for outside of your household budget. 

The true cost of retiree healthcare expenditures is based on how healthy you remain during retirement. And actually, that’s not necessarily related to savings – it’s more a combination of genetics and peoples’ penchant for healthy living before and during retirement. However, it’s always best to prepare for the worst, so the more money you save and earmark for healthcare expenses, the better off you’ll be. 

One way to control your monthly premiums in retirement is to shop and compare Medicare plans each year during open enrollment. It helps to keep a running tab of your out-of-pocket expenses each year so that you can increase your Medicare coverage if your costs start trending higher. Higher coverage might mean higher premiums, but that will lower out-of-pocket costs each year. 

The following guide was developed by T. Rowe Price. It estimates how much retirees spend based on different types of Medicare plans using 2021 premiums and data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Among retirees who enroll in either (1) Medicare Parts A, B, and D; (2) Medicare Advantage HMO and Drug Plan; or (3) Medicare Parts A, B, D, and Medigap: 

• 25 percent will pay less than $500/year in out-of-pocket expenses
• 50 percent will pay less than $1,200/year in out-of-pocket expenses
• 25 percent will pay more than $1,900/year in out-of-pocket expenses
• 25 percent will pay more than $3,900/year in out-of-pocket expenses

As for paying those out-of-pocket expenses, remember that you pay them over time, so it’s not as if you’re paying a large lump sum all at once. One strategy is to fund a savings account with enough money to pay out-of-pocket expenses for the year, based on your prior year’s spending. Then replenish this account each year from other funding sources, such as an annual required minimum distribution (RMD) from a retirement account. 

If you have access through your current health plan, pre-retirees can save for healthcare expenses with a health savings account (HSA). Contributions are tax deductible and, over time, you can invest your savings for earnings accumulation. These funds, including investment gains, are never taxed as long as they are used to pay eligible healthcare expenses. The account is particularly useful if you don’t tap it until retirement when the money can be used to pay for things like dental and vision care, hearing aids, long-term care insurance premiums, and nursing home costs. 

Despite those alarming projections about how much healthcare will cost you in retirement, remember that it can be manageable because it is paid out over time.

 

Protecting Your Business from Cyberattacks and Fraud in 2022

This article discusses how most companies today rely heavily on the Internet and other technology to operate. Although these tools are vital and can be useful, they also pose the threat of cybercrime. However, by utilizing strategies such as encrypting your data, investing in artificial intelligence, and utilizing your forensic accountant, your business should be able to detect fraud in its early stages. No matter the industry that you operate in, cyber security is a growing area of concern and should be dealt with head-on. Be sure to check out this link for more information!

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Determining If Your Vacation Rentals Are Really Commercial Real Estate

This article discusses the ins and outs of a tax strategy known as a cost segregation study, and in particular, for those that own a vacation rental real estate. When the property is leased out for less than 30 days at a time, it could be recognized as non-residential real estate property. Therefore, taxpayers should undertake a cost segregation study on their property in order to take bonus depreciation and meet passive activity loss grouping rules. If your short-term vacation rental property qualifies, conducting the study can save a significant amount of money each year. Be sure to check out this link for more information!

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Ways to Keep Adult Children from Becoming a Financial Liability

This article explains several scenarios where your child may be asking you for financial help. First, they may have taken many loans and want your help with EMIs. The author suggests turning the child to a financial advisor to keep your finances intact. Secondly, the child may want a loan to help with a start-up company. If the child has mentioned this scenario before, then hopefully it makes sense for the parents to hand out a loan without interest with a direct time frame on when it needs to be paid back. Another scenario involves a child who wants frequent handouts. The author suggests getting a financial advisor or even seeking counseling. For more guidelines to help with your family business issues, click the link.

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